Nigeria’s oil sector has seen significant policy moves and partnerships in recent months. In November 2025, Reuters reported that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) is bolstering transparency ahead of a planned initial public offering. The Petroleum Industry Act of 2021 mandates NNPC to list shares, and the company’s CEO noted they began publishing monthly financial performance in May 2025 as part of IPO preparationsreuters.comreuters.com. At the ADIPEC conference in Abu Dhabi (Oct–Nov 2025), NNPC’s leadership also disclosed plans to increase NNPC’s stake in the new Dangote mega-refinery to 20%reuters.com. The Dangote Refinery – Africa’s largest at 650,000 barrels per day – became operational in 2024 but has faced challenges from cheaper fuel importsreuters.com. NNPC is simultaneously seeking foreign technical partners to revive three state-owned refineries that have sat idle despite heavy past investmentsreuters.com, signaling a drive to boost domestic refining and end fuel imports.
Industry regulators have highlighted improvements in Nigeria’s oil output and security. In September 2025, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) announced that crude theft and pipeline sabotage had dropped to a 16-year low of about 9,600 barrels per day (in July 2025)spglobal.comspglobal.com. President Bola Tinubu’s government, which declared a “state of emergency” in June to combat oil theft, deployed a mix of military action and community engagement to curb illegal tapping of pipelinesspglobal.com. As a result, Nigeria’s oil production has rebounded to around 1.7–1.8 million barrels per day by mid-2025, with peak output nearing 1.84 million barrels in Julyspglobal.com. Officials are optimistic about reaching 2 million bpd by the end of 2025spglobal.com. In line with these trends, international oil majors have continued divesting onshore assets to local operators. Notably, Shell’s onshore oil portfolio was sold to a Nigerian-led consortium (Renaissance) in a deal completed March 2025, reflecting a shift towards indigenous ownership to improve security and community relationsspglobal.comspglobal.com.
Global developments are also shaping the oil and gas landscape. The World Bank’s October 2025 outlook noted that crude oil prices have eased amid ample supply and softer demand. Brent crude fell roughly 14% in the first nine months of 2025, pressured by OPEC+ production increases and weaker demand growth in key markets like Chinablogs.worldbank.orgblogs.worldbank.org. OPEC+ producers have gradually raised output targets through 2025, contributing to a projected oil surplus going into 2026blogs.worldbank.org. Natural gas markets, meanwhile, saw volatility: early 2025 LNG demand in Europe drove gas price spikes, although U.S. and European gas prices later diverged (U.S. prices ~44% higher year-on-year in Q3 2025 due to exports, while Europe’s remained flat)blogs.worldbank.orgblogs.worldbank.org. These global price trends impact Nigeria’s export revenues and underline the importance of Nigeria’s ongoing reforms – ensuring the country can increase production efficiently even in a more supply-rich, price-cautious global environment.